[ad_1]
Ukraine lost an area the size of New York City to Russian forces in November, the worst monthly figure for Ukrainian defenders since September 2022.
After the full-scale invasion in February 2022. Russia quickly gained ground before being repulsed in a Ukrainian counter-offensive. Last year, when the conflict was mostly at a stalemate, data from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) showed Russian forces captured 2,233 sq. km (862 sq mi) of territory. Already in 2024 they occupied about 2656 sq. km.
The area captured by the Russians in November amounted to 1,202 square meters. km, about the size of New York. But experts say much of the land is rural and of no great strategic or operational value. Russian forces have for the most part encircled but not yet captured major cities, and several major rail or road arteries have recently been severed.
Russian control of Ukrainian territory increased from 17.4% in November 2023. to 17.9% as of November 30, 2024.
Russia made the most territorial gains in Donetsk, where it gained 1,804 sq. km since the beginning of the year. In November alone, it grew by 1006 square meters. km.
The November advance in Donetsk marks the biggest Russian gains in the region since May 2022. These gains account for the bulk of Russia’s recent successes on the battlefield.
In October, Russia captured the town of Vagledar, a key stronghold in southern Donetsk that has withstood repeated Russian attacks since the start of the war.
Since April, Russia has been advancing on the city of Pokrovsk, a regional capital and a key military objective. Several towns were captured in this offensive, including Novogrodivka, a town with a population of 15,000 before the war.
Mapping the land that Russia has seized over the past year reveals how it has grabbed mostly agricultural land, but failed to make significant gains in territory with high urban or infrastructure value.
Further north, Russian forces have taken control of Severno and Zalizne, among other towns, in their advance towards the city of Toretsk.
There were also losses in Lugansk and Kharkiv. This year, Russian troops captured 350 sq. km territory in Lugansk. At the end of November, they controlled 98.6% of the region.
Similarly, in Kharkiv, Ukraine has lost 392 square meters. km territory from January this year. Kupyansk, one of the largest cities in eastern Kharkiv, saw fighting this month for the first time since it was retaken by Ukraine in its 2022 counteroffensive.
Ukraine made some small gains earlier this year after repelling major offensives in northern Kharkiv and Luhansk, but overall the trend of losing territory continues.
The analysis shows that Russia has gradually made gains over the year, particularly in Donetsk, and controls most of the land in each of the four regions it illegally annexed in 2022. — Lugansk, Kherson, Zaporozhye and Donetsk.
Of the four, Donetsk remains the region where Russian forces control the least amount of land, but has made the most significant gains in recent weeks.
Since November last year, 29 villages and towns with a pre-war population of more than 1,000 people have been claimed by Russia, of which 25 are in Donetsk.
Apart from these settlements, most of the land claimed by Russia in the last year is rural – be it farmland, forests or fields.
George Barros, head of the Russia team at ISW, said Ukraine is about to lose more ground, but that attention should be paid to what land Russia is taking.
He said: “Although Vagledar and Avdiivka were important targets, Russia has not fundamentally changed Ukraine’s defense posture. Their acquired territories are mainly agricultural lands, and their losses – 30-50,000 soldiers [either dead or injured] per month – are completely unsustainable. The Russians won’t have waves of infantry and vehicles to send as they are used to assuming the current rate of attrition will hold for the next year. They are performing very poorly.”
Dr Marina Miron, a researcher at King’s College London’s Department of Military Studies, said Russia’s aim was to stretch Ukraine’s forces as much as possible with offensives in eastern Ukraine. “There is a possibility that the front will collapse, especially in the areas south of Vagledar.
Miron estimated that the war, in its current form, will probably end in 2025, but Ukraine will enter the ceasefire negotiations on the back foot.
She said: “Ukraine relies heavily on Western support, which is dwindling. The election of Donald Trump only adds more uncertainty. Morale in the Ukrainian army is very low, after battles with a “meat grinder” like Bakhmut, and they are not recruiting the troops they need. Russia simply has more potential, more resources and more troops.
In addition to areas fully under Russian control, the map above also shows Russian progress, indicating areas where Russian forces are present but not in control.
The land area estimates used in this analysis are based on an analysis of daily ISW control files. These files estimate the extent of territory controlled or contested by Russian forces on a daily basis. They can be documented several days after specific events occur because of the way ISW evaluates and verifies changes in territory control.
[ad_2]
