UK house price growth ‘surprisingly’ hits two-year high; dollar rises after Trump’s Brics tariff threat – business live | Business

Here are some reactions to this morning’s national home price report:

Guy Gittins, Executive Director of Foxtons:

“After the pace of house price growth slowed in the run-up to the Autumn Budget, the latest figures show the market is starting to pick up speed again.

This consistent positivity demonstrates the current strength of the market despite complications from the broader economic headwinds. Over the last 12 months we have seen a huge increase in the volumes of new buyers, viewings and offers made and there is a very healthy level of availability on the market at the moment. So while home prices are rising, there is certainly a good level of inventory for buyers to choose from and the market is not overheating due to the usual imbalance between supply and demand.

The market traditionally takes a breather during the festive period, but we are seeing a flurry of activity led by buyers looking to secure stamp duty relief before the deadline next April. We expect the start of next year to be much the same, although those buyers who want to take advantage of the current stamp duty exemption thresholds should act now to have a chance of finishing in time.

Matt Thompsonsales manager at Chesterton:

“The property market in November saw a growing number of first-time buyers who were, and still are, motivated to purchase a property ahead of the stamp duty change in April 2025. This, in addition to high demand from home seekers in general, resulted in more sales finalized compared to November last year.

With the current level of buyer activity expected to continue into the new year, we forecast London properties to hold their value or see a gradual increase in value of up to 3% over the next year.

Tomer Abody, director of a specialist lender MT Finance:

“Another month of rising house prices further demonstrates the level of confidence in the market that is evident following the reduction and stability of both mortgage rates and inflation.

“Both sellers and buyers are clamoring to close deals as affordability improves.

“Although the budget is now behind us, its full impact is yet to be felt. However, we hope this market confidence will continue, with further rate cuts expected in the new year.”

Jeremy Leaf, estate agent in north london:

“In our offices, we are seeing prices firming and stocks rising, in part because the budget, while not particularly helpful, was also not as bad as many feared.

“As a result, some pent-up demand has been released and buyers are digging a little deeper. This extra choice, as well as the widespread acceptance that inflation and mortgage rates would not fall as far and as quickly as many had expected, meant that caution still prevailed. Transaction times are also increasing, especially given the seasonal distractions, so sellers still have to be extremely competitive to attract serious attention at this time of year.”

The US dollar rose after Donald Trump warned BRICS countries that he would impose 100% tariffs if they challenged the US currency.

Trump announced over the weekend that he would impose 100% tariffs on BRICS members if they create a new currency to rival the US dollar.

The President-elect stated:

We demand a commitment from these countries that they will neither create a new BRICS currency, nor support another currency to replace the mighty US dollar, or face 100% tariffs and must expect to bid farewell to the sale of the wonderful economy of USA.

With trade war fears mounting, the dollar rose 0.5% against a basket of major currencies – despite no agreement among BRICS members to accept it alongside their own currency.

That pushed the pound down half a cent to $1.2695.

The euro, also weighed down by political instability in France, was also half a cent lower at $1.052.

Trump’s comments may be a sign that his administration will favor a stronger dollar.

Jim Reid on Deutsche bank told clients this morning

As always with Mr. Trump, this appears to be a stand-off, but it probably won’t end up being great for the US economy if implemented…

it seems to further indicate that dollar strength is a theme of the new administration against Trump 1.0, where they initially tried to talk the dollar down.

Good morning and welcome to our ongoing coverage of business, financial markets and the global economy.

UK house price growth “surprisingly” rose to a two-year high, a new survey showed this morning, despite a recent rise in mortgage rates.

The average price of a home sold in November rose by 1.2% compared to October, the lender said All over the country accounts, to £268,144. This is the biggest monthly gain since March 20.

This lifted the annual increase in house prices to 3.7% – the fastest since November 2022, just after Liz Truss’ mini budget – rise of 2.4% in October.

Home prices are just 1% below the all-time high set in the summer of 2022.

Robert Gardner, All over the country chief economist, says the rate of increase is unexpected:

“The acceleration in house price growth is surprising as affordability remains tight by historical standards, with house prices still high relative to median incomes and interest rates well above pre-Covid levels.

Housing market activity has remained “relatively steady in recent months,” Gardner adds, p mortgage approvals are approaching levels seen before the Covid-19 pandemic.

Gardner adds:

“Solid labor market conditions, with low unemployment rates and strong income gains, even after accounting for inflation, have helped to drive steady increases in activity and home prices since the start of the year. Household balance sheets are also in good shape, with debt levels at their lowest levels relative to household incomes since the mid-2000s.

All over the country also predicts that there will be a surge in transactions in the first three months of 2025 as buyers try to close deals before stamp duty changes come into effect next April.

However, these lender surveys cannot provide a perfect measure of the market; they only track buyers who take out a mortgage, not cash buyers. And changes in the “mix” of homes for sale can also skew the data.

The agenda

• 9am GMT: Eurozone manufacturing PMI report for November

• 9.30 a.m. GMT: UK manufacturing PMI report for November

• 10:00 a.m. Christine Lagarde addresses the Climate and Environment Advisory Board of the EIB Group in Luxembourg

• 14:45 GMT: US manufacturing PMI report for November