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Eight years ago, indiscriminate Russian airstrikes helped the forces of the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assaddrive rebels out of Aleppo, a crucial turning point in the country’s civil war, which has been largely at a stalemate since 2020.
A stunning rebel offensive began over the weekend Aleppo again – and now the Assad regime faces its biggest threat in years. Here’s what you need to know.
What happened in Aleppo?
The new offensive in Syria began on Wednesday when rebel groups said they quickly seized control of a military base and 15 villages held by government forces in the northwestern province of Aleppo. The rebels, led by the jihadist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), cut off the main highway from Damascus to Aleppo. Assad’s ally Russia retaliated with airstrikes.
By Friday evening, HTS fighters had moved from their base in the countryside to the outskirts of Aleppoand on Sunday they seemed to be in complete control of the city. The Syrian army sent reinforcements and equipment to Hama province amid fierce fighting as rebels tried to push south towards the regional capital there. Meanwhile, Syrian and Russian airstrikes were carried out destruction of opposition-controlled areas.
What is the history of the civil war in Syria?
In 2011 pro-democracy demonstrations – part of the Arab Spring – were crushed by Assad’s forces. The resulting unrest led to an armed uprising that eventually turned into a fractured civil war with many rebel factions supported by regional players with competing goals, and initial demands for a new pluralist settlement largely obscured by extremist jihadist organizations, including an al-Qaeda affiliate and the Islamic State.
Whatever the agenda of these rebel groups, and however ruthless some of them may be, far more civilians are fleeing government-controlled territory into opposition areas than the other way around.
The war has killed an estimated half a million people, and nearly 7 million more have fled the country as refugees. Those that remain are enduring a prolonged state of economic crisis. While the rebels once looked like a serious threat to Assad’s rule, he has gradually regained control of about 70 percent of the country with crucial support from Russia and Iran.
The rebels are confined to parts of northern and northwestern Syria, where they are held under the protection of neighboring Turkey. The war has never fully stopped, but is largely at a stalemate under Russia’s Vladimir Putin and Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan broker a ceasefire in the northwestern Idlib region in 2020.
Why was the conflict renewed?
HTS appears to have been preparing for this operation for some time, with reports of major military exercises a few weeks in the fall and predictions of a major offensive. Experts say HTS forces are significantly more professional than they were during the ceasefire, with a new military college established and full control of local government in its strongholds.
The other critical factor for the new advance is the broader geopolitical situation and the perception that Assad’s allies are distracted or weakened. Hezbollah, an Iranian proxy that used to be a crucial element in Assad’s forces, has been decimated by Israel’s operations in Lebanon. While Russia remains a major player and Putin will not accept defeat in the region, Moscow’s forces are undeniably bogged down in Ukraine.
Israel has dramatically escalated airstrikes against Iranian forces on the ground in Syria and has also hit weapons depots in Aleppo. Donald Trump launched airstrikes against Syrian military sites during his first term as US president, along with a broader policy of pressuring Iran. Dareen Khalifa, Syria expert at Crisis Group, told the FT that all this represented a “once in a lifetime opportunity” for the rebels.
The offensive may also have been motivated by recent Russian and Syrian airstrikes against rebel areas, which may have been intended as a precursor to a wider military campaign. And there was a limited window of opportunity for the operation. Hyde Hyde, analyst, said: “If the rebel forces had waited too long, the regime would have been able to reinforce its front lines as Hezbollah forces are no longer engaged in the war in Lebanon.” It should be noted that the offensive began on the same day as the ceasefire in Lebanon entered into force.
Who are Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham?
The founder of HTS, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, was once a participant in the Iraqi insurgency against the US as a member of the group that eventually became the Islamic State. In its previous incarnation as Jabhat al-Nusra or the Al-Nusra Front, HTS later declared allegiance to al-Qaeda. He eventually publicly severed those ties in 2016. and was renamed Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham or Levant Liberation Organization.
HTS is now the most powerful rebel faction in Syria and controls Idlib, home to about 4 million people, with a command of about 30,000 soldiers.
Although it is designated as a terrorist group by the US, the Turkish intervention is aimed at limiting its operations and it is not believed to have global ambitions. Still there is serious human rights concerns in the area it controls, including executions of those accused of joining rival groups and on charges of blasphemy and adultery.
How will Assad respond?
Although HTS progress has been made at a remarkable rate, there are good reasons to believe that the Assad regime and its allies will fight back – even given the constraints imposed in other military spheres. Ibrahim al-Asil, senior fellow at the Near East Institute in Washington, DC, said: “The real battle has not yet begun. Assad may be using an old strategy that has worked for him before: withdraw, regroup, reinforce and counterattack. A key test of the Rebels’ evolution will be knowing when to stop.
As regime forces consolidate in Hama and Russian airstrikes are likely to intensify, HTS’s strength will be sorely tested in the coming days and weeks – and negotiations between Turkey and Russia are likely to prove just as important to the final outcome.
Many experts fear that Assad will turn to chemical weapons, just as he did devastating effect in the darkest days of the civil war. If so, whatever successes they manage to consolidate the rebels could come at a terrifying cost.
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